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Review 1: "Clade I Mpox Virus Genomic Diversity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018 - 2024: Predominance of Zoonotic Transmission"

Overall, the reviewers appreciated the authors' candid acknowledgment of the study's limitations, including potential sampling biases, and recognized the urgent need for enhanced genomic surveillance to mitigate the mpox epidemic in the DRC. 

Published onSep 29, 2024
Review 1: "Clade I Mpox Virus Genomic Diversity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018 - 2024: Predominance of Zoonotic Transmission"
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Clade I Mpox virus genomic diversity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018 - 2024: Predominance of Zoonotic Transmission
Clade I Mpox virus genomic diversity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018 - 2024: Predominance of Zoonotic Transmission
Description

Background: Recent reports raise concerns on the changing epidemiology of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with increasing case counts, sexual contact-mediated clusters, and sustained human-to-human transmission driven by a novel monkeypox virus (MPXV) subclade, clade Ib. However, only a limited number of clade I MPXV genomes have been characterized so far, from a limited number of regions. Methods: We conducted whole genome sequencing of 603 mpox-positive samples that were collected from 581 patients between 2018-2024 in 17 of the 26 provinces of the DRC. Results: Genome coverage was at least 70% for 429/603 (71.1%) samples and near full-length MPXV genomes (>90% coverage) were obtained for 348/603 (57.7%) samples from 337 patients. All newly generated MPXV sequences belonged to clade I, among which 17 were clade Ib strains, all from patients infected in 2024 in the South-Kivu province. The large majority (>95%) of the new strains fall within previously described clade Ia groups and potential new groups have also been observed. The low number of APOBEC3 mutations found among clade Ia suggests that most human mpox cases are probably linked to zoonotic transmissions. Genetically diverse MPXV lineages co-circulate in small geographic areas during the same outbreak suggesting multiple zoonotic introductions over a short period from one or multiple reservoir species. Recent identification of mpox cases in Kinshasa shows that multiple lineages circulate in a large urban center, indicating separate introduction events. Conclusion: The mpox epidemic in the DRC exhibits two distinct patterns. In traditional endemic regions, the epidemic is predominated by zoonotic spill-over events involving clade Ia. Conversely, in the eastern part of the country, the clade Ib outbreak is driven by human-to-human transmission highlighting the need for a coordinated response effort at the national, regional and international levels.

RR:C19 Evidence Scale rating by reviewer:

  • Strong. The main study claims are very well-justified by the data and analytic methods used. There is little room for doubt that the study produced has very similar results and conclusions as compared with the hypothetical ideal study. The study’s main claims should be considered conclusive and actionable without reservation.

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Review: This in-depth study examined 603 mpox virus (MPXV) samples from 581 patients across 17 provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo, spanning 2018 to 2024. The researchers successfully sequenced 348 high-quality MPXV genomes, providing a wealth of data to support their findings. Their analysis revealed that 95% of new sequences fell into clade Ia, a result backed by thorough phylogenetic analysis. Interestingly, they identified potential new groups within clade Ia, suggesting greater diversity than previously known. In contrast, all 17 clade Ib strains were found exclusively in South Kivu province in 2024, forming a distinct lineage.

The researchers argue convincingly that most clade Ia cases stem from animal-to-human transmission, rather than sustained human-to-human spread. This claim is supported by the low frequency of APOBEC3-type mutations in clade Ia sequences - just 10.7% overall - compared to a much higher rate of 35.9% in clade Ib. The study also sheds light on the complex dynamics of MPXV transmission, showing that diverse viral lineages often circulate simultaneously in small areas.

Perhaps most concerning is the evidence of multiple clade Ia lineages being introduced into Kinshasa, highlighting the potential for urban spread. Drawing these threads together, the researchers conclude that the MPXV epidemic in DRC follows two distinct patterns: mainly zoonotic transmission of clade Ia in traditional endemic areas, and sustained human-to-human spread of clade Ib in the east.

While the study's conclusions are well-grounded in the genomic and epidemiological data, the authors are candid about its limitations. They acknowledge potential sampling biases and call for more comprehensive research to fully unravel the diversity and transmission patterns of MPXV in the DRC. This balanced approach adds credibility to their findings and underscores the need for ongoing vigilance and research in tackling this emerging public health challenge.

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