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Reviews of "Dynamics and Ecology of a Multi-stage Expansion of Oropouche Virus in Brazil"

Reviewers: M Sallam (Uniformed Services University) | 📕 ◻️◻️◻️◻️ • A Samy (Ain Shams University) | 📒📒📒◻️◻️

Published onJan 21, 2025
Reviews of "Dynamics and Ecology of a Multi-stage Expansion of Oropouche Virus in Brazil"
key-enterThis Pub is a Review of
Dynamics and ecology of a multi-stage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil
Dynamics and ecology of a multi-stage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil
Description

Abstract In March 2024, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) issued an alert in response to a rapid increase in Oropouche fever cases across South America. Brazil has been particularly affected, reporting a novel reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) and expansion to previously non-endemic areas beyond the Amazon Basin. Utilising phylogeographic approaches, we reveal a multi-scale expansion process with both short and long-distance dispersal events, and diffusion velocities in line with human-mediated jumps. We identify forest cover, banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion. Using ecological niche modelling, we show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. This likely resulted from the virus being introduced into simultaneously densely populated and environmentally favourable regions in the Amazon, such as Manaus, leading to an amplified epidemic and spread beyond the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the role of human mobility in colonisation of new areas, and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast.

To read the original manuscript, click the link above.

Summary of Reviews: Reviewers highlight concerns about the omission of insect vector density as a crucial factor in transmission dynamics, questioning the reliance on landscape, climate, and air travel data without accounting for vector presence. Additionally, discrepancies between human mobility patterns and OROV case distribution challenge the proposed link between travel and virus spread. The study's phylogenetic analysis is also limited by incomplete genomic sampling, introducing potential biases that impact the reliability of lineage dispersal findings. Further, the lack of reassortment analysis leaves a critical evolutionary mechanism unexplored. Spatial mismatches between environmental and genomic data introduce additional uncertainty, and transparency concerns arise from the absence of a complete genomic dataset. Reviewers recommend a more rigorous methodological framework, including integrated phylogeographic analysis, improved spatial resolution, and explicit justification for key assumptions. Despite these issues, the study has the potential to contribute valuable insights with significant revisions to address data completeness, analytical robustness, and transparency.

Reviewer 1 (Mohamed S…) | 📕 ◻️◻️◻️◻️

Reviewer 2 (Abdallah S…) | 📒📒📒 ◻️◻️

RR\ID Strength of Evidence Scale Key

📕 ◻️◻️◻️◻️ = Misleading

📙📙 ◻️◻️◻️ = Not Informative

📒📒📒 ◻️◻️ = Potentially Informative

📗📗📗📗◻️ = Reliable

📘📘📘📘📘 = Strong

To read the reviews, click the links below. 

Comments
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The reviewers highlight key gaps, including the omission of vector density, discrepancies in mobility patterns, and incomplete genomic sampling. These issues, along with spatial mismatches and lack of reassortment analysis, raise concerns about reliability. Addressing these with improved methods and transparency would strengthen the study. Also, Toca Boca secret locations offer a fun exploration outside of research.

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The discrepancy between spiderman game human mobility patterns and OROV case distribution challenges the study's assumption that travel is a primary driver of virus spread. This inconsistency suggests that other factors, such as local transmission dynamics or vector behavior, may be more influential and should be explored further.

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