Review 2: "The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda"

RR\ID Evidence Scale rating by reviewer:

• Reliable. The main study claims are generally justified by its methods and data. The results and conclusions are likely to be similar to the hypothetical ideal study. There are some minor caveats or limitations, but they would/do not change the major claims of the study. The study provides sufficient strength of evidence on its own that its main claims should be considered actionable, with some room for future revision.

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Review: The paper estimates the impact of COVID-19 on skilled and unskilled workers in Uganda. The variation in skill in the sample was exogenously driven by a vocational training RCT implemented in 2013. This is the paper’s main strength. The paper then delves into the mechanisms that explain the findings, focusing on both labor supply and labor demand. On the supply side, the authors provide compelling evidence, employing reweighting techniques, to illustrate how different mechanisms (experience, search) influence the resilience of skilled workers during the pandemic. For the demand side, the paper relies on a firm survey. The findings may not be causal, as the study reveals that skilled and unskilled workers were employed in firms with distinct characteristics even before the pandemic. This difference in pre-pandemic firm characteristics could influence the observed employment and earnings dynamics during the pandemic. As such, the findings are more descriptive, and the evidence presented is less strong. Overall, the paper carefully builds its arguments and supports them using the best evidence available. It is an important contribution to the literature in developing countries.

Readers, especially policymakers, may want to consider the following points. First, while the study presents evidence regarding the effectiveness of training for young job seekers, it remains uncertain whether the impact would be comparable for older workers or mid-career individuals lacking specific skills. This limitation stems from the study's focus on a particular demographic: young job seekers with limited prior labor market experience. Second, the paper documents notable impact heterogeneities, for example, by gender and initial ability. Therefore, designing interventions that can benefit all groups in society is an essential next step for future research. Third, the vocational training provided was delivered by reputable providers and was of high quality. The problem of how young people in developing countries could gain access to high quality training is outside the scope of this paper. Yet, it remains a priority problem that policymakers must solve.