Review 1: "The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda"

RR\ID Evidence Scale rating by reviewer:

• Strong. The main study claims are very well-justified by the data and analytic methods used. There is little room for doubt that the study produced has very similar results and conclusions as compared with the hypothetical ideal study. The study’s main claims should be considered conclusive and actionable without reservation.

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Review: The paper "The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda" explores the differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on skilled and unskilled workers in Uganda through a randomized vocational training program introduced in 2013. The study follows a panel of workers and firms from 2012 to 2022, analyzing how skills, specifically sector-specific vocational training, affected workers’ resilience during the pandemic. The authors find that although skilled workers faced more severe job losses during the lockdowns, they recovered faster than unskilled workers, leading to better cumulative employment and earnings outcomes.

The research design is robust, involving a long-term panel dataset that tracks both workers and firms. The study is well-structured, with clear writing, and the claims made by the authors in the abstract are backed by proper evidence.

The authors argue that the pandemic had V-shaped impacts on both employment and earnings. Skilled workers, those who received vocational training, experienced a sharper decline in employment and earnings during lockdowns but recovered faster post-pandemic. This claim is well-supported by Figure 2 (Employment) and Figure 3 (Earnings) in the paper. Figure 2, Panel A illustrates how skilled workers experienced a more pronounced drop in employment during lockdowns, but rebounded faster post lockdown compared to unskilled workers. Similarly, Figure 3, Panel A shows that while earnings fell for both groups during the pandemic, skilled workers experienced a quicker recovery. By February 2022, skilled workers were earning more than their unskilled counterparts.

Another important claim made by the authors is that skilled workers spent 61% more time employed and earned 17% more cumulatively than unskilled workers during the pandemic. This is substantiated by the analysis presented in Table 5, which quantifies the differential impacts on employment and earnings. Skilled workers' ability to maintain employment in their trained sectors and earn higher wages, even during the pandemic, highlights the long-term benefits of vocational training.

The paper also explores the mechanisms driving these differences. It identifies sector-specific experience and skill certifiability as key factors that allowed skilled workers to recover more quickly. Table 6 shows that cumulative sector-specific experience before the pandemic accounts for much of the difference in employment outcomes during the pandemic. Workers with vocational training had accumulated experience in specific sectors that helped them retain or regain jobs more quickly, even in the face of economic turmoil. Additionally, the certifiability of skills (vocational training certificates) gave skilled workers a significant advantage in switching employers or sectors, further aiding their recovery. The appendix, particularly Figure A5, provides additional evidence of skilled workers spending more time in their trained sectors, evidencing the importance of sector-specific skills in maintaining employment during downturns.

In conclusion, the paper provides valuable insights into the resilience of skilled workers during economic crises, particularly in low-income settings like Uganda. The authors offer strong empirical support for the claims made in the abstract, demonstrating the positive long-term effects of vocational training on labor market outcomes during the pandemic.