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Reviews of "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change will Transform Public Health Priorities for Zoonotic and Vector-borne Disease"

Reviewers: L Escobar & A Cifuentes (Virginia Tech) | 📒📒📒 ◻️◻️ • F Fouque (World Health Organization) | 📒📒📒◻️◻️

Published onMay 20, 2024
Reviews of "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change will Transform Public Health Priorities for Zoonotic and Vector-borne Disease"
key-enterThis Pub is a Review of
Ecological impacts of climate change will transform public health priorities for zoonotic and vector-borne disease
Ecological impacts of climate change will transform public health priorities for zoonotic and vector-borne disease
Description

Abstract Climate change impacts on zoonotic/vector-borne diseases pose significant threats to humanity1 but these links are, in general, poorly understood2. Here, we project present and future geographical risk patterns for 141 infectious agents to understand likely climate change impacts, by integrating ecological models of infection hazard (climate-driven host/vector distributions and dispersal3,4) with exposure (human populations) and vulnerability (poverty prevalence). Projections until 2050, under a medium climate change (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5), show a 9.6% mean increase in endemic area size for zoonotic/vector-borne diseases globally (n=101), with expansions common across continents and priority pathogen groups. Range shifts of host and vector animal species appear to drive higher disease risk for many areas near the poles by 2050 and beyond. Projections using lower climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 & 4.5) indicated similar or slightly worse future population exposure trends than higher scenarios (RCP 6.0 & 8.5), possibly due to host and vector species being unable to track faster climatic changes. Socioeconomic development trajectories, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), mediate future risk through a combination of climate and demographic change, which will disrupt current, regional patterns of disease burden. Overall, our study suggests that climate change will likely exacerbate global animal-borne disease risk, emphasising the need to consider climate change as a health threat.One Sentence Summary Climate change and socio-economic development dictate future geographical areas at risk of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases.

To read the original manuscript, click the link above.

Summary of Reviews: This preprint analyzes the potential future geographic patterns of 141 different infectious diseases and the changes in said patterns due to climate change. It comes to the conclusion that climate change will likely increase the spread of animal-borne diseases, but that the effect of climate change will be impacted by socioeconomic development patterns as well. The authors agree that this preprint is potentially informative, but that much more extensive models should be utilized due to the extreme complexity of the question and range of diseases studied.

Reviewer 1 (Luis E… & Analorena C…) | 📒📒📒 ◻️◻️

Reviewer 2 (Florence F…) | 📒📒📒 ◻️◻️

RR:C19 Strength of Evidence Scale Key

📕 ◻️◻️◻️◻️ = Misleading

📙📙 ◻️◻️◻️ = Not Informative

📒📒📒 ◻️◻️ = Potentially Informative

📗📗📗📗◻️ = Reliable

📘📘📘📘📘 = Strong

To read the reviews, click the links below. 

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